It would be very easy for me to pick one of the favorites to win the race like everyone else. Either Norman rides away like last year or Peter Reid hangs in there and stays close to outrun Norman and take the title again. But I am going to be bold and more imaginative than that.
So let’s make an attempt to decipher all of this by proposing the tactic of each athlete and give you a rundown.
Peter Reid. He is easily the odds on favorite for Saturday. His plan has to be to stay closer to Norman on the bike and have a great run. I am going to go out on a limb and predict that he will stay close to Norman on the bike but his run will suffer because of it thus opening the door to someone else that can run after a hard ride.
Norman Stadler. Norman has to still think no one will be near him off the bike but this year there will be many closer to him. Part of the reason he got such a big lead last year was because no one respected his run ability and no one wanted to work on the bike. I saw Peter sitting up on his handle bars just cruising on the back of the “draft free” paceline last year. I can only guess he did not want to lead the entire pro pack and have them pace off him. He did do that for many miles only to see a huge line behind him. In the meantime Norman got away. That will not happen this year. If Norman can run a 2:50 or better he can still win but I would not bet on that. He will get gap reports and he will hammer to get a bigger lead.
Tim DeBoom. His strategy will have to be similar to Peter. If Peter and some other guys go hard on the bike he will have no choice but to follow. His run confidence is down after Nice and previous results. I do not se him hanging back on the bike like other years. I doubt he can win if he has to ride hard.
Simon Lessing. Racing Canada was his only way to a Kona ticket. That is a very hard double and Simon literally cracked there with an age group like second ½ marathon. This will be another disappointing year for the guy with the most raw talent in the pack. His training and approach needs to change in my opinion. I live in his hometown and hear many reports about his training prowess. If he looks within and changes from there out he one day he will win this race for many years. I just do not see it happening this year.
Chris McCormack. Chris has definitely kept his mouth shut and put the hammer down in training. But his season is just way too long. Two Ironman wins this year will continue to be his claim to fame. I think that the day he concentrates on Kona more like some of the past champions is the day he can be near the top. He also has some nutrition issues but you would think someone can help him with that.
Cameron Brown. Cameron was my top pick last year and I was not even close. He had his worst race in Kona ever. With the changed dynamics I just do not see him challenging for the top spot. Only show for this horse.
Rutger Beke. If he had not been found with drugs in his system and basically got out on a technicality. “At least that is my uneducated understanding of his positive drug testing case." I would say he can win it all. But the dark cloud over him just does not allow me to give him that much credit. Sorry Rutger.
Faris Al-Sultan. Last year he had the guts to go after Norman and went at it alone. He then outran Norman but Peter was even faster. If Peter, Tim and others help on the Norman bike chase he can be dangerous. I spoke with him and he was not too positive and was worried. That was not good to see but I still like him.
My prediction this year is going to be based on tactics. The runners are now changing their strategy and will ride hard in order to keep Norman close. On the other hand Norman will ride even harder. What this will do is make it a race of attrition on the run. The guy that will win is someone that can ride hard and still have a decent run. My money is on the only guy to do that last year. That is Faris Al-Sultan. He will have help on the ride this year and be able to outrun better runners who will be tired after the ride.
1. Faris Al sultan
2. Norman Stadler
3. Peter Reid
4. Tim DeBoom
5. Cameron Brown
I’ll bring my woman’s predictions tomorrow. Today I ran for 70 or so minutes from the condo all the way to the pier and a bit back. Basically I ran the first miles of the old Ironman course. I was trying to stay aerobic and relaxed. That all went great. When I was running by Lava Java there was a whole bunch of guys and girls from the team and they started clapping and yelling. I was wondering what all the noise was until I saw them. I got a bit embarrassed. Late in the day I went for a swim on the Ironman course. I swam to the ½ way point and it was spooky as I was the only one out there. I had just talked to my wife about sharks so that did not help. All I saw was very nice looking colorful fish. I wish I had an underwater camera t show you pictures. It is gorgeous. Maybe I will do that next year.